Analisis Regresi Peran Indikator Makro Ekonomi terhadap Stabilitas Keuangan: Studi di Sumatera Selatan

Abstract

Regional financial stability is an important factor in supporting sustainable economic growth. In South Sumatra, fluctuations in household consumption, investment, and savings pose various challenges that may affect credit quality and banking capital resilience. This study aims to analyze the effects of household consumption, investment, and savings on financial stability, as proxied by the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), in South Sumatra. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data for the 2018–2025 period obtained from the Financial Services Authority (OJK), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and Bank Indonesia. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the assistance of EViews 14. The results show that household consumption has a negative and significant effect on NPL, while investment and savings have no significant effects on NPL. Simultaneously, the three variables explain 55.4% of the variation in NPL. Meanwhile, household consumption, investment, and savings do not have significant effects on CAR, although they explain 38% of its variation. In conclusion, household consumption is the macroeconomic indicator that plays the most significant role in credit stability. The findings imply the need to strengthen financial literacy and inclusion, promote productive investment, and enhance banking risk supervision to improve regional financial stability.